In today’s Hot Dish newsletter: An early look at the independent spending groups sitting on the most campaign cash, a new job for a former governor, and a top candidate's financial struggles. But first, some final thoughts as we wrap up the opening Minnesota Poll of the campaign season.
By now, you’ve probably seen the headline findings from the latest Minnesota Poll: Sen. Amy Klobuchar enters the governor’s race as the clear front-runner, Democrats have an advantage in the open U.S. Senate race, and both President Donald Trump and Gov. Tim Walz are underwater with Minnesota voters. Also, the new flag is deeply unpopular.
And if you’re the kind of person who can’t resist diving into the crosstabs, there’s a good chance you’ve already spent some time with our charts breaking down in more detail how different groups of voters are leaning.
But for everyone else, I’ve pulled out a few key takeaways to help explain what the poll tells us about the political landscape heading into November.
Democrats appear to hold the enthusiasm advantage. Among those who identified as DFLers or leaned Democratic, 68% said they were “very enthusiastic” about the election, compared with 51% of conservatives or Republican-leaning voters who said the same.
That gap is not entirely surprising. Republicans currently control both Congress and the White House, a political dynamic that often energizes the opposition party ahead of midterm elections. But it's an important metric this cycle: Midterms are largely driven by turnout among each party’s most reliable voters, and the poll suggests Minnesota Democrats have reason to feel good about the motivation of their base.
Republicans face a significant name-recognition problem. The best-known Republican angling to get on the ballot this fall is MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, but most voters view him unfavorably. Beyond Lindell, GOP candidates — particularly those endorsed by the party — are still largely unknown.
A majority of voters, 51%, said they don’t recognize the name Kendall Qualls, the GOP’s endorsed candidate for governor. An even larger share, 68%, said the same about endorsed Senate candidate Adam Schwarze. Their GOP rivals fare somewhat better in name recognition, but whoever emerges from the Republican primaries in August will have a short runway and a steep climb to make themselves known. In the governor’s race, Klobuchar has near-universal name recognition.
Warning sign for Democrats: Fraud is a salient issue. A solid majority of Minnesotans said they are very concerned about fraud in state programs, and voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to address it. That dynamic helps explain why Republicans believe they have their best opportunity in years to win statewide office.
The advantage isn't limited to the GOP base. Independents trust Republicans by a significant margin on fraud, as do voters in every region of the state outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties. It's not hard to draw a line from those results to Walz's 10-point drop in his approval rating since last summer. So far, Klobuchar’s approval ratings suggest voters distinguish between her record and the controversies facing the Walz administration. But as the campaign intensifies and Republicans hammer the issue harder, that separation could become more difficult to maintain.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” There’s a reason that political maxim has endured for decades: Voters ultimately judge leaders through the lens of their own finances. About 70% of people in the poll said rising costs have caused major or minor financial stress, including a similar share of independent voters. Just 30% rate the economy as “good” or “excellent,” and a clear majority disapprove of Trump’s handling of it.
Whether that ultimately benefits Democrats or Republicans may depend on which party voters trust more to lower costs and improve their financial outlook, but the underlying frustration creates political risk for whichever party is perceived as responsible for the economy.
A few other notable findings:
AI anxiety is widespread. More than three-quarters of voters said they are very or somewhat concerned about the use of artificial intelligence in daily life. Unlike many issues, concern was remarkably consistent across age, gender, education and geography. Voters are also wary of the infrastructure powering AI: 63% said they would oppose a data center being built in their community.
Most voters favor a path to citizenship. Two-thirds of Minnesotans said undocumented immigrants should be allowed to remain in the U.S. and eventually become citizens if they meet certain requirements. About a quarter of those polled said all undocumented immigrants should be deported.
Support for an assault weapons ban remains steady. A majority of voters support banning military-style rifles with detachable magazines, such as the AR-15, while 44% oppose such a ban. Support is unchanged from last June, suggesting views on the issue have remained largely stable even in the wake of the mass shooting at Annunciation Catholic Church and School in Minneapolis.
